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EV

Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (NRGV)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue was $33.5M, down sharply year over year (vs. $118.2M in Q4 2023) and below Wall Street consensus $42.5M*, while “Primary EPS” (S&P definition) of -$0.09 beat consensus -$0.11*; GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.43 . The shortfall reflects mix/timing and the pivot to “own & operate,” which defers EPC revenue today in favor of future high-margin recurring cash flows .
  • Contract revenue backlog surged 90% sequentially to $660M and ~4x year over year, supported by Australia momentum and new US IPP/utility wins; developed pipeline is $2.1B (9.4 GWh) after adjusting for battery prices, tariffs, and FX .
  • 2025 revenue guidance: $200–$300M (4–6x vs. 2024), below the ~+$450M “Investor Day” 2025 outlook, driven by conversion of a large EPC project (Stoney Creek) into a 14‑year own‑operate LTESA and ~40% battery price declines; consensus FY25 revenue stands at ~$191M* .
  • Liquidity/financing catalysts: year-end cash was $30.1M with no debt; Calistoga project financing is committed and expected to return ~$28M in April; Cross Trails financing and ITC monetization remain in market, with Australia execution a key 2025 driver .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Backlog inflected: +90% q/q to $660M, ~4x y/y, anchored by Australia and US wins; supports multi-quarter revenue visibility .
    • Strategic pivot taking hold: six owned projects totaling ~840 MW under decision control expected to come online over 18–24 months, with ~$2B of long‑term recurring revenue potential; CEO: “We are building a strong energy asset infrastructure complemented by our storage software and technology business.” .
    • Financing progress: Calistoga (green hydrogen) received a binding funding commitment, with ~$28M expected to return to the balance sheet on closing; project achieved mechanical completion and is in commissioning for Q2 operation .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Revenue/mix: Q4 revenue $33.5M vs. $118.2M in Q4’23; GAAP gross margin compressed to 7.7% on unfavorable equipment mix, and FY24 revenue ($46.2M) was 7% below the low end of guidance due to battery pricing and timing of license revenue .
    • Losses/charges: Q4 GAAP net loss $(61.8)M included a higher provision for credit losses and an impairment of equity securities; adjusted EBITDA loss improved modestly to $(13.4)M .
    • Liquidity draw: Cash declined to $30.1M (no debt), reflecting ~$58.7M investing cash outflows for owned projects; management filed a 10‑K extension tied to a pending subsequent event .

Financial Results

Quarterly results and trends (oldest → newest):

MetricQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$118.236 $3.770 $1.199 $33.471
GAAP Gross Margin %3.4% 27.8% 40.3% 7.7%
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$(0.15) $(0.18) $(0.18) $(0.43)
Adjusted Operating Expenses ($M)$18.919 $16.877 $15.235 $16.066
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$(14.901) $(15.792) $(14.651) $(13.391)
Cash & Equivalents ($M)$109.923 $106.835 $51.124 $27.091
Revenue Backlog ($M)—$264 $350 $660

KPIs and operating drivers:

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Developed Pipeline ($USD Billions)$2.8 $2.7 $2.1
Australia activity (GWh)New 0.4 GWh ACEN project Awards/underway exceed 2.6 GWh Executing on >2.6 GWh; Stoney Creek 1.0 GWh acquisition announced
Owned Projects Under Decision Control——6 projects, ~840 MW; ~18–24 mo. online; ~$2B LT recurring revenue potential

Consensus vs actuals and FY outlook:

MetricQ4 2024 Consensus*Q4 2024 ActualFY 2024 Consensus*FY 2024 ActualFY 2025 Consensus*FY 2025 Company Outlook
Revenue ($USD Millions)$42.514*$33.471 $55.253*$46.199 $191.239*$200–$300
Primary EPS ($)$(0.113)*$(0.0908)*$(0.485)*$(0.3578)*$(0.285)*—

Note: S&P Global consensus/actual figures marked with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance/OutlookCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY 2025~+$450M “Investor Day” outlook (May 2024) $200–$300M; 4–6x vs. FY24; excludes ~$150M that shifts to owned assets; pricing/tariffs reduce third‑party EPC Lowered vs. prior outlook due to conversion of Stoney Creek to 14‑year O&O LTESA and ~40% decline in battery prices
Cost structure2025—Cost optimization initiatives to continue, prioritizing accretive, cash-generative projects Maintain efficiency focus

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Own & Operate (O&O) strategyInitiated O&O on Calistoga (293 MWh) and Cross Trails (114 MWh) Reaffirmed; ~$100M of projects retained on balance sheet Six owned projects (~840 MW) under decision control; ~$2B LT recurring revenue over 18–24 months Scaling O&O rapidly
Project financing—Jefferies engaged; expected $60–$80M back via Calistoga/Cross Trails financing and ITC Calistoga binding commitment (Eagle Point) with ~$28M expected in April; Cross Trails financing in market Financing de-risks liquidity
Australia momentumACEN 0.4 GWh EPC Awards/under construction >2.6 GWh Stoney Creek 1.0 GWh LTESA/O&O; Horsham 100 MW/200 MWh; robust pipeline Strong growth driver
Pricing/tariffs—Battery price declines lifted margins YTD ~40% decline in LFP pricing and US tariff dynamics reshape mix; Australia pricing advantage; margin expansion expected Deflation + tariff arbitrage
AI/data centers—Management cites demand/siting constraints for energy‑dense storage RSDC partnership to deploy B‑Nest hyperscale BESS (2GW/20GWh), 8x energy density for data centers Emerging vertical
Gravity—China EVx RTE ~83%; TIME Best Inventions Gravity license timing/mix hurt FY24 GM; credit reserve on 2022 gravity license receivable Validation, but timing risk
Regulatory/filing——10‑K extension due to pending transaction impacting subsequent events footnote One‑off disclosure item

Management Commentary

  • “2024 represented a transition year…executing our planned ‘own and operate’ strategy…building…asset infrastructure…long term, predictable and highly profitable cash flow streams.”
  • On Stoney Creek LTESA economics: “The contract guarantees a minimum of $20 million [per year]…we are allowed to take 100% of [merchant] revenue up to $36 million per year; above $36 million, 50/50 sharing.”
  • Margin outlook: “We are expecting margin expansion as we look at the year…we’ve shown that…from 5% [2023] to ~13.5% [2024].”
  • Financing: “We…received earlier in the month a priced bond and a financing commitment…expecting that to close in April. That will add about $28 million back to the balance sheet.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Calistoga timeline/financing: Commissioning underway; energization over 30–60 days; $28M financing is committed and returns to EV (construction spend already outlaid) .
  • Tariffs/pricing: 2025 demand pull‑forward in US to beat higher tariffs; Australia not tariff‑impacted; suppliers partially offset tariffs via price declines .
  • Margin trajectory: Lower LFP pricing plus supply chain aggregation expected to expand 2025 margins vs. 2024 .
  • Gravity contribution: Minimal in 2025 revenue guidance; high‑margin but de minimis mix near term .
  • Australia pricing: Favorable relative to the US; suppliers targeting AU as an attractive market, supporting arbitrage .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 2024: Revenue missed ($33.5M vs. $42.5M*), but “Primary EPS” beat (-$0.09 vs. -$0.11*). GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.43 .
  • FY 2024: Revenue $46.2M vs. $55.3M*; “Primary EPS” -$0.36 vs. -$0.49* (better than expected)*.
  • FY 2025: Street revenue ~$191.2M* sits below EV’s $200–$300M guidance range, implying upward revenue estimate risk if backlog conversion and financing close as planned .
    Note: S&P Global consensus/actual figures marked with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

Financial Details from the Q4 2024 8-K/Press Release

  • Q4: Revenue $33.5M; GAAP gross margin 7.7%; GAAP net loss $(61.8)M; Adjusted EBITDA $(13.4)M; Cash & equivalents $30.1M; no debt .
  • FY24: Revenue $46.2M; GAAP gross margin 13.4%; Adjusted EBITDA $(57.9)M (within guided loss of $45–$60M); cash used in investing $(58.7)M for owned projects .
  • Backlog $660M (+90% q/q); developed pipeline $2.1B (9.4 GWh) .
  • Outlook 2025: Revenue $200–$300M; excludes ~$150M of revenue shifting to owned assets; reflects ~40% battery price decline impact and higher US tariffs; ongoing cost optimization .

Other Relevant Q4 2024 Press Releases

  • Stoney Creek 1.0 GWh (NSW) agreement with Enervest (AUD ~$350M) – foundation for the later LTESA/O&O conversion discussed on Q4 call .
  • RackScale Data Centers partnership: B‑Nest hyperscale BESS for data centers (planned 2GW/20GWh) with 8x energy density vs. standard BESS; construction targeted to begin 2026 .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Backlog-driven setup: The 90% q/q backlog jump to $660M and AU/US traction increase confidence in 2025+ revenue conversion despite a soft FY24 revenue base .
  • Strategic pivot trade-off: Pivot to “own & operate” depresses near-term GAAP revenue but targets 75–85% project EBITDA and more predictable long‑term cash flows; Stoney Creek LTESA is the template .
  • Guidance vs. Street: FY25 revenue guide ($200–$300M) sits above consensus (~$191M*), setting up estimate revisions if financing and execution proceed as planned .
  • Margin path: Management expects 2025 margin expansion on supply aggregation and battery price deflation; Q4 margin was temporarily mixed down by equipment shipments .
  • Liquidity watch: Year-end cash was $30.1M with no debt; near-term project financing closings (Calistoga ~$28M) and Cross Trails/ITC monetization are key catalysts .
  • Data center optionality: B‑Nest partnership targets a large, growing AI/HPC power bottleneck with ultra‑dense BESS—incremental LT demand vector .

S&P Global disclaimer: Asterisked estimate/actual values in the Estimates tables are retrieved from S&P Global.

References: Q4 2024 8‑K and press release ; Q3 2024 press release and call ; Q2 2024 press release ; Stoney Creek and RackScale press releases .